A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
