Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
